The Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Lateralus]

It really started to run away at the end there. I took a stab at this gap with some SPY calls for next friday. The DOW still has to close at 25003 tomorrow to really confirm we're not done with this rally yet.

I think the market wants to shake every last short out before it turns back down.

 

[spunj]

It really started to run away at the end there. I took a stab at this gap with some SPY calls for next friday. The DOW still has to close at 25003 tomorrow to really confirm we're not done with this rally yet.

I think the market wants to shake every last short out before it turns back down.

Agreed. Good luck with your calls! I was away at the market close...but came back to this:

Once again, it bounced off of resistance.

 

[spunj]

It really started to run away at the end there. I took a stab at this gap with some SPY calls for next friday. The DOW still has to close at 25003 tomorrow to really confirm we're not done with this rally yet.

I think the market wants to shake every last short out before it turns back down.

Looks like you are having a good morning!

 

[Lateralus]

Looks like you are having a good morning!

Yeah I sold them though. Socrates just imported new data and we came very close to a monthly bullish reversal in the S&P and failed to elect it. These reversals were missing previously, see my post on it here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/aec/comments/am2xg6

 

[spunj]

The DOW this morning blasted through the lower resistance line as shown below. In keeping with Armstrong's theme - we are watching now to see if we can breakout past the upper resistance. End of day prices will be important.

 

[spunj]

Yeah I sold them though. Socrates just imported new data and we came very close to a monthly bullish reversal in the S&P and failed to elect it. These reversals were missing previously, see my post on it here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/aec/comments/am2xg6

I assume you profited with your position, so bravo to you! That's the name of the game. I'm really glad you are here posting your MA thoughts and trade ideas on spunj. The paint is still drying here so we are talking to a very small audience - but it is growing. I hope those who are reading this will spread the word that there is a Martin Armstrong discussion going on here.

I follow and trade Armstrong on a more macro level. My intent and participation in this discussion is to post and give trade ideas and see how they line up with Armstrong's predictions. Your analysis makes this possible - and - it allows you, me, and others to compare our predictions.

I've been pleased that over the years, my chicken scratching on my charts (I'm a minimalist to the Nth degree) has been my personal stock market life jacket. It's taken me decades to learn that staring at charts loaded up like a stuffed potato with rsi/macd/ema/oscillators/bollinger/bands/stochastics/ichimoku/blah..blah.. are much less effective than choosing a couple tools (which you spend time to master) to plop on your charts.

We'll see anyways...

 

[Lateralus]

Even though I made a small profit I consider it a bad trade as I was basing it off incorrect information, but even that was not my fault as I had no idea Socrates was still missing data. The clearest signal to me right now is Gold, I have 1 position in DUST based on the failure to elect the monthly reversal.

See this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/aec/comments/algrs4

 

[spunj]

I've got a current position in JNUG. Own shares outright while selling OTM calls to generate cash. I am bullish gold/silver in the mid to long term but I think when we see the market pull back in the next X days, the mining stocks will be dragged down with the overall market initially.

 

[Sumo]

I'm watching Martin's calls on gold and silver. I'm stuck in an oil position that I don't like. I got into it going against what Armstrong said. I think I've learned my lesson.

Armstrong is saying that gold and silver will be weakening again soon. "This market has been declining for 2 years going into 2019 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend."

 

[spunj]

I'm watching Martin's calls on gold and silver. I'm stuck in an oil position that I don't like. I got into it going against what Armstrong said. I think I've learned my lesson.

Armstrong is saying that gold and silver will be weakening again soon. "This market has been declining for 2 years going into 2019 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend."

I'm with you on this. I expect both to go up over time. In the meantime, a great play is to sell covered calls on the way up.

 

[Lateralus]

The latest monthly arrays are showing a panic cycle AND volatility in both the S&P 500 and Dow for February, and the weekly arrays are showing this week as a panic cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive blowoff this week to shake out all the shorts and get everyone on the wrong side as Martin talks about, especially considering the lack of pressure from any weekly reversals in the DOW between here and 25966. That kind of rally would also go through 200 DMA in the S&P 500, which would be perfect for squeezing out every last short. We don't even have any daily reversals in the S&P 500 until 2785.

With that said it is possible the rally today could be the high and we gap down tomorrow, but I am leaning towards a bigger "blowoff". Whatever the case, I think this is a crucial week and I will be paying very close attention. Gold hasn't dropped much yet but I'm not worried, all my sources of analysis are saying the high is in so I would be very surprised if we broke towards new highs.

 

[ynot]

I just read Armstrong's private blog and then looked at the summaries. Now I'm confused.

He says the posture is generally bullish for now. Short to mid-term things are positive. He's focusing on a global turning point way way out in 2020. He warns that a turning point is coming in May so stay focused. My question is, what do we do between now and then? May? 2020?

@Lateralus, I like your prediction though. I guess I would need to subscribe to the daily subscription to get your kind of clarity.

 

[spunj]

The market is charging higher just because it can. @ynot , I'm still sitting on the sidelines regarding any indices play. This may be a foolish thing to do but I'm just wary of the price action. FANG stocks are raging again and gold/silver miners are weakening again. This scenario is usually a good setup to jump in long $SPY and $DIA but I just can't pull the trigger.

I'm really happy with my JNUG positions so I'll just trade those as my synthetic to the indices.

 

[spunj]

The latest monthly arrays are showing a panic cycle AND volatility in both the S&P 500 and Dow for February, and the weekly arrays are showing this week as a panic cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive blowoff this week to shake out all the shorts and get everyone on the wrong side as Martin talks about, especially considering the lack of pressure from any weekly reversals in the DOW between here and 25966. That kind of rally would also go through 200 DMA in the S&P 500, which would be perfect for squeezing out every last short. We don't even have any daily reversals in the S&P 500 until 2785.

With that said it is possible the rally today could be the high and we gap down tomorrow, but I am leaning towards a bigger "blowoff". Whatever the case, I think this is a crucial week and I will be paying very close attention. Gold hasn't dropped much yet but I'm not worried, all my sources of analysis are saying the high is in so I would be very surprised if we broke towards new highs.

If we show continued weakening today, I'm going to buy some puts on DIA at end of day. I wouldn't be surprised if we gapped down tomorrow.

 

[spunj]

Markets are just meandering so far today.

 

[spunj]

Is the worm turning?

 

[Lateralus]

Well I have to say I am not completely surprised we failed to break the 200 DMA in the S&P, but part of me was really hoping we would rally all the way to one of the next weekly reversals (2760 S&P, 25966 DOW). I have no short positions because I was too afraid to short this rally, which I still think was the smart decision considering how inexperienced I am with Socrates still. With that said the arrays were calling for volatility and a panic cycle this month and this week, so I can't say I should be too surprised. If I see Socrates reliably point out these moves enough times I will be more confident putting money into it in the future.
Of course this all assumes we continue to break down and don't make any further highs in the short term. I might consider entering a short position on a bounce here.
DOW daily reversals
S&P 500 daily reversals
I still have my short position in the GDX (Feb 22 expiration), it has started to pull back along with gold... but barely. The first daily bearish reversal in Gold is 1296, and the first weekly bearish is 1280.

 

[spunj]

Gap down we did. On a procedural note, it sure makes sense to enter your trades right before closing. I'm still holding short positions. Fingers crossed that we will have some follow-through.

 

[spunj]

And a beautiful follow-through gap down again this morning. I sold my puts about 30 minutes after market open. I am expecting a small drive up in prices - and then - a stall where we will begin meandering down again.

 

[spunj]

Here's a graph of SPY. I figured the market would try to take the gap and then lose momentum. Let's see.