The Martin Armstrong Discussion

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
I'm a fan of Martin Armstrong. Although there are plenty of vociferous critics who claim that he's no more than a "two handed economist", I've come to appreciate his theories and predictions based on time and price. If you don't know anything about this man, then I'd suggest you check out this.

Let's discuss his forecasts that are publicly available at his website: Armstrong Economics
 

Attachments

ynot

New member
Jan 25, 2019
13
0
1
I've come over from bitcointalk.org to help get this discussion going.

I opened up some shorts today since we bounced back up to high levels. I've got put options on DIA and SPY. I think we'll see some frantic activity next week. I only hope that it's in the downward trend!
 

Sumo

New member
Jan 25, 2019
6
0
1
I've come over from bitcointalk.org to help get this discussion going.

I opened up some shorts today since we bounced back up to high levels. I've got put options on DIA and SPY. I think we'll see some frantic activity next week. I only hope that it's in the downward trend!
Armstrong just posted his daily Market Talk and it looks like his sentiment is changing ==> from bearish to bullish. I may be wrong but he just said:

"However, it is worth mentioning that many are expecting some good numbers from core NASDAQ components next week, which make up around 35% of the street. Having suffered almost a years loss in one quarter, they could well set the path for 2019 especially from such low levels. Auto’s also traded well following softer China/US trade talk rumours. There is still money finding its way into emerging markets driving yields down yet again.

Up beat earnings expectations, partial end to the government shutdown and positive rumours coming from the China/US trade talks and we see stocks rallying. January comes to a close next week and we have seen a month that recaptured much of the Q4 losses. NASDAQ has rallied 8%, Small Caps 10% and the DOW and S+P 6.25% which is not a bad start to the year. We all know that stocks are pulling back from December lows, but will be interesting listening to the FED next week after January stock market returns. Employment numbers again next Friday, but with government back in the game and positive remarks coming from the talks, and we could be in for some exciting times if next weeks earnings show a positive surprise. "

So, @ynot you may be on the wrong side of the trade. ;)
 

ynot

New member
Jan 25, 2019
13
0
1
Looks like I'll need to be ready to jump out. His charts predict big volatility next week with a panic cycle happening during the same time. Maybe it means the market is going to shoot up and the panic is nothing more than FOMO.
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
Looks like I'll need to be ready to jump out. His charts predict big volatility next week with a panic cycle happening during the same time. Maybe it means the market is going to shoot up and the panic is nothing more than FOMO.
I'm almost all in cash now. I do have a running TSLA short (via puts) but am nervous about that due to incredible upward pressure in price of this stock.
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
GSR Interviews MARTIN ARMSTRONG - Sept 25, 2018 Nugget


"Commodity cycle should kick in after 2020."
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
Dow futures down -265 this morning before market open. Looks like Marty once again nailed a panic cycle date. According to his forecast, we should see increased volatility today and through this week.
 

ynot

New member
Jan 25, 2019
13
0
1
I'm almost all in cash now. I do have a running TSLA short (via puts) but am nervous about that due to incredible upward pressure in price of this stock.
I'm sticking with my trade. Still holding tsla puts. Waiting for earnings in a couple of days. I'll either be laughing or crying at the end of this week.
 

ynot

New member
Jan 25, 2019
13
0
1
You know who we should also be talking about? Charlie McElligott from Nomura. He's had some hardcore on the spot calls these last few months.
He's expecting the market to have big headwinds for the next few weeks. (just like armstrong.)

"Large expected “Pension Rebalancing” estimates with significant notional selling OUT of Equities and INTO Fixed-Income on account of very extreme MTD performance, with flows likely to weigh on this week’s returns into month-end.

Window for the “violent S&P selloff -17.5% in 6-7d or less” analog pullback remains in place for another week or so, still tracking the ’07-’08 and ’11-’12 analogs.

On the technical front, following the recent greater than expected releveraging by CTAs to the long side, there is a lack of systematic trend “covering flows” at current levels, after having cut prior “Max Shorts” across Global Equities in-half over the past two weeks; this also means that the next wave of "buy triggers" is currently well above current spot market levels, so there is little risk for another forced short squeeze event."


So, who's going short?
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
I'm still out of DIA and SPY. Waiting....

There are so many articles and investment houses who are forecasting a big drop in the indexes that I'm inclined to play the other side of these predictions.
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
Check out what is going on with the Dow today. QE4 announced. You would think we are off to the races. However...

 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
Look at this. This trend line from 2016 is doing its job:

20
 

Lateralus

New member
Jan 30, 2019
8
1
3
Wow nice find, it's not the only trendline I've noticed. But the real test will be of the 25003 weekly reversal IMO.
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
Wow nice find, it's not the only trendline I've noticed. But the real test will be of the 25003 weekly reversal IMO.
Thank you! I find it fascinating that your chart is reflecting the same "flavor". I'm curious to see how prices react now that we are at that downward trendline.
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
Oh, the tension...

29
 

Lateralus

New member
Jan 30, 2019
8
1
3
Personally I don't pay much attention at all to converging trendlines. That is almost mid february and we are sitting right at an important gap in the reversals. I expect us to either break up or down early next week depending on where we close tomorrow..

I also think where we close today in the S&P will be telling of what to expect for tomorrow, there is fairly large gap in the daily reversals:

 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
So in theory, if we close above 2685.45+- we can expect a strong move up to the 2800 area? Armstrong's terminology *still throws me - and I've read his description of what bullish and bearish reversals are.
 

Lateralus

New member
Jan 30, 2019
8
1
3
So in theory, if we close above 2685.45+- we can expect a strong move up to the 2800 area? Armstrong's terminology *still throws me - and I've read his description of what bullish and bearish reversals are.
2685 is the first reversal. The gap is from 2696 to 2785. If we only elect the 2685 reversal I think it is basically a coinflip whether we follow through the 2696 reversal and rally to 2785. The weekly bullish is 2760 so that area might provide resistance on the way to 2785. We'll see how we close today.
 

spunj

Administrator
Jan 24, 2019
164
1
18
2685 is the first reversal. The gap is from 2696 to 2785. If we only elect the 2685 reversal I think it is basically a coinflip whether we follow through the 2696 reversal and rally to 2785. The weekly bullish is 2760 so that area might provide resistance on the way to 2785. We'll see how we close today.
Gotcha...thanks.